A Bitcoin Indicator Just Hit A 9-Month Low, What Does It Mean For The Price?
The Bitcoin exchange fund flow ratio has just hit a nine-month low. Here is what it might mean for the price of the cryptocurrency.
The Exchange Fund Flow Ratio
The signal of interest here is the all Bitcoin exchanges fund flow ratio. It’s defined as the total amount of BTC flowing in/out of exchanges divided by the total amount of BTC transferred on the network.
All exchanges fund flow ratio = Total Exchange Inflows + Outflows ÷ Total Transferred BTC on whole network
In simple terms, the fund flow ratio shows how many Bitcoins are occupied by exchanges compared to those sent on the whole BTC network.
When the fund flow ratio number increases, it means the market volatility is up as more transfers are taking place on exchanges.
On the other hand, when this number decreases, it implies people are opting for OTC (or “Over The Counter”) deals instead of using exchanges for transactions.
Traditional OTC deals include P2P transfers and trading desks. There is also a newer method, called decentralized dark pools. In which, traders don’t have to trust each other (or a trading desk organization) as trades are automatic and anonymous thanks to smart contracts.
Here is the latest exchange fund flow ratio chart for Bitcoin:
BTC fund flow ratio seems to have hit a low | Source: CrypoQuant
As the chart indicates, the ratio is now the lowest it has been since October last year.
Over the period of the last 6 months, it looks like spikes in the value of the fund flow ratio mean a change in the price of Bitcoin. Which is expected, as an increase means a volatile market.
Now that the value has hit a low, it seems the BTC market isn’t very volatile at the moment.
Now, it’s hard to predict the price of the coin solely based on the chart above as there are many other factors to take into consideration.
One thing it indicates for certain is the fact that there isn’t much inflow or outflow from exchanges, which means not many investors are looking to buy/sell their Bitcoins in exchanges.
The BTC price at the moment is around 33k, down almost 4% in the past week. Here is how its value has fluctuated in the last 6 months:
Bitcoin goes down after a short rise | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Lower market volatility means the price shouldn’t change much. Over the past couple of weeks, it looks the price has stagnated between $30k and $35k.
It’s hard to tell when Bitcoin will be able to escape from this stagnation phase, but if the fund flow ratio is anything to go by, it might not happen for a while.