Bitcoin’s Dip Below $26K Sparks Analyst Speculation of a $20K Retest


  • Bitcoin held above $26,000 over the weekend but experienced a drop below this threshold on Monday.
  • This sparked one analyst’s speculation that Bitcoin may retest its 2017 high of around $20,000.
  • Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also noted that Bitcoin has officially Weekly Closed below Bull Market moving averages, indicating lost support at those levels.

Despite holding above $26,000 over the weekend following a plunge just days earlier, Bitcoin dropped below this threshold again on Monday. 

Bitcoin is now trading at a tight range of $25,900 to just slightly above $26,000, as of writing this. This sparked one analyst’s speculation that Bitcoin may retest $20,000. 

According to Watcher Guru, who cited ali_charts on Twitter, Bitcoin might retest its 2017 high of around $20,000. This is due to the fact that the token has fallen below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $27,331, indicating bearishness. 

“Each time $BTC has broken below the 200-day SMA over the last 10 years, it often drops to touch the realized price,” Ali tweeted

The realized price of Bitcoin is a metric that aims to provide a more accurate representation of the average price at which all existing Bitcoin has been acquired by investors or holders. 

Unlike the market price, which is the current price at which Bitcoin is trading on exchanges, the realized price takes into account the historical prices at which individual Bitcoins were bought and sold.

Realized price gives traders a better idea of the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders, as it considers the prices at which Bitcoin was acquired rather than the current market price. 

It can be particularly useful for assessing the overall market sentiment and understanding whether long-term holders are in profit or loss. 

If realized price is higher than the current market price, it indicates that a significant portion of holders is in profit; conversely, if it’s lower, it suggests that many holders are at a loss. 

Currently, the realized price of BTC is $20,030, as per ali_charts.

According to Rekt Capital, a prominent crypto trader and analyst with 350K followers on X (Twitter), BTC Weekly Closed below all three Bull Market moving averages: 

  • 21 week EMA 
  • 50 week EMA 
  • 200-week MA

Moreover, Rekt Capital suggested that BTC may soon lose its support at these levels, potentially leading to a further decline in the price of BTC. Shortly thereafter, the analyst reported that BTC had a “new weekly close” above ~$26,000, indicating that the anticipated breakdown continuation of the double top pattern has not materialized at this point.

In trading terms, a “double top” is a technical chart pattern that often signals a potential reversal in the price trend of an asset. It is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a prolonged uptrend and suggests that the upward momentum might be coming to an end, potentially leading to a price decline.

However, in a poll that the analyst created on X (Twitter), it was found that over 62% of users believe that BTC will not drop below $20,000 on this retrace

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