Scenario 1: Bitcoin Bulls And Bears Alike Beware Of Potential Pump And Dump Fractal
Bitcoin price has been stuck trading within a small symmetrical triangle. These continuation patterns tend to suggest another equal sized move down is coming. However, a sweep of lows would “perfect” a buy setup that could initiate a pump and dump fractal from years ago.
The pump and dump would be designed to further confuse sentiment and take advantage of the sudden shift to low liquidity and thin order books. Here’s what the fractal looks like and what it says about the coming price action.
Market Timing: Why You Should Wait For The “Perfect” Buy Setup
Bitcoin price action is confusing at the moment. The cryptocurrency is consolidating, but unable to break any lower, nor have bulls been able to stage a rebound.
The weekly downtrend has now reached a critical point, however. The weekly TD Sequential indicator is now at a 9 count. The market timing tool hints at a possible reversal, but a TD 9 is much more effective when “perfected.”
The TD 9 count remains to be perfected. Is a sweep of lows next? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The parameters of a “perfect” buy setup involves the final 8 or 9 candle sweeping the lows of the previous candles. This means for the weekly buy setup to be just right, below $30,000 and support must be taken out.
The scenario bizarrely almost matches exactly the crash from above $10,000 to $7,800. Lows then were swept to $7,200, perfecting the buy setup and leading to one of the largest intraday pumps in the history of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Pump And Dump Fractal Examined: What To Expect
Examining the two structures more closely shows just how accurate this fractal could end up being. The key differences between the price action then and now, was that there was even more upside pressure creating several more tops instead of the blow-off of June 2019.
Still, the market structure is similar, as is support, resistance, and price action. With the timing also on the side of coincidences, along with a set of false breakout to the upside, another fakeout to the downside would lure and trap shorts expecting the target of the symmetrical triangle to be reached – and instead find themselves squeeze back to $50,000.
The fractal suggests a massive pump and dump is coming | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
At that point, the fractal suggests that target is ultimately reached, albeit much later on around Black Thursday. The target of the symmetrical triangle based on the measure rule is somewhere around $23,000 per BTC. The ease in which whales can move the price of Bitcoin back and forth is due to the sudden default in liquidity and thinner order books than they were just weeks ago.
However, as similar as the fractal may look and sentiment just right, there’s no telling what might happen and the past isn’t often a good indicator of future performance. Is this time different?